@nategrayzone 2013 NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

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Baltimore at Denver Saturday 1/12/13 430PM EST

@nategrayzone picks: Denver-34 Baltimore 13

This will be our first time seeing Peyton Manning and the Broncos since their 11 game winning streak in the regular season.

The Denver Broncos were ranked #3 in both passing and rushing defense. These numbers are impressive, and if they play up to those numbers in this divisional game, they will be the winner of this match. They were also at number 5 for passing offense in the season, while the Baltimore Ravens lead the passing offense in the postseason. They are also ranked second in rushing yards in the postseason.

The Broncos ranked #16 in rushing offense, while the Ravens were #11 (regular season stats). The only clear advantage that Baltimore has in this game is in the attack, with Ray Rice leading the way. Denver will have to slow down Rice, and Ray Lewis and the Ravens will need to shut down Peyton Manning to win this game.

Peyton is playing at a high level and with his playoff experience, Superbowl title, confidence, and playing for the legendary John Elway, Manning will ensure his Broncos advance to the AFC title game. In my Playoff Blog Series Intro title, I picked the Denver Broncos to represent the AFC for the Super Bowl. Follow @nategrayzone

Green Bay at San Francisco Saturday 1/12/13 8PM EST

@nategrayzone picks: 49ers-27, Packers-17

In this rematch of week 1, the 49ers and the Packers are meeting again for a divisional playoff match to advance to compete for the NFC conference title.

ESPN’s Kevin Seifert’s blog headline on ESPN Blog Nation says, “The 49ers opened the season by beating the Packers. But that was with Alex Smith in charge. Can Colin Kaepernick end Green Bay's year with another loss?” Yes!

The biggest problem for Green Bay in this game will be a running back named, Frank Gore (SF). The Packers finished the NFL season at under half of the league in rushing defense (17). Green Bay lost to the 49ers in week one with Alex Smith starting as the ‘9ers quarterback. With Colin Kaepernick replacing Alex Smith at the QB position, he will manage the ball well in this divisional playoff. He has had a tremendous season since replacing Smith.

Green Bay finished at number 11 in the regular season in pass rush defense. Three NFL playoff teams are in the top 10 in rushing defense, Seattle Seahawks (6), Denver Broncos (3), and the San Francisco 49ers (4). The Packers will do a better job at containing Colin Kaepernick than Frank Gore. Green Bay will also have some help from their secondary, Charles Woodson and cornerback, Tramon Williams. If Frank Gore has an outstanding rushing game, he will create some opportunities for Kaepernick to find the likes of wide receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. The 49ers are the most complete team versus the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay has some depth at the receiver position, especially in James Jones. The 49ers number three ranked defense will have their work cut out for this guy.  Although the Packers have an effective running game, it will not be a factor in this game versus the 49ers number 4 rank rushing defense. Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers will be the factor for the Packers.

Rodgers is the league’s # 2 QB with a passer rating of 104.9. He is a smart athlete and knows how to handle tough game situations and is instrumental on 3^rd down completions. 9ers coach, Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinators will have to be creative in devising plays to attack Rodgers.

San Francisco has a hunger and motivation that will help them carry this game out and advance to the conference matchup. Follow @nategrayzone

Seattle at Atlanta, NFC Divisional Playoff, Sunday 1/13/13 1:00PM EST

@nategrayzone picks: Seattle Seahawks-23 Atlanta Falcons 20

This can be the round the Atlanta Falcons lose. Halfway through the season I wrote, “Atlanta Falcons 8-0: Not Who You Think They Are,True Test Will Be in Playoffs.” Although they are the number one seed in the NFC, the number 5 seed, Seattle Seahawks will surprise them.

Seahawks coach, Pete Carroll, has his team doing some great things. They have an uncanny fire and drive and they feel invincible. Every NFL team has a dream of winning the Super Bowl whether they are the league’s worst or best performing team. I like the Seahawks drive and confidence. They have proven that they are not a ‘lucky” team to make it to the playoffs only to lose in the first round. Their defense played exceptional in the divisional win at Washington Redskins. They will do the same thing in this round against Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

Cornerback, Richard Sherman, has been holding it down in the “corner” for the Seahawks. Matt Ryan will be looking for Roddy White. White will be well covered. The Seattle defensive schemes and cornerback unit will disrupt Matt Ryan’s passing game. Playing in an intense, loud Georgia Dome will add to Seattle’s motivation.

Marshawn Lynch (SEA) versus Jacquizz Rodgers and Michael Turner (ATL) will be an even match. Both teams will need their running game to be effective. Matt Ryan versus rookie QB, Russell Wilson will be interesting with Ryan having more experience, and Russell being a continually improved QB since his earlier rookie games in the season.

Atlanta’s pass defense ranked in at 23 in the season versus Seahawks (6), according to the numbers. The Seahawks will have a passing advantage in this bout. Although Atlanta’s passing offense ranked at number 6 versus Seattle (27) in the season, Wilson has improved, and the Seahawks defense will do a better job at getting to the quarterback than Falcons will. Russell Wilson’s agility and ability to move outside of the pocket and make Aaron-Rodgers like 3^rd down completions will also decide the fate of this game.

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Houston at New England Sunday 1/13/13 4:30PM EST

AFC South meets AFC East

Both of these teams finished first in their division (HOU 12-4 AFC South, NE 12-4 AFC East). This game can go either way and has been the toughest call for all my picks in the NFL divisional playoff weekend.

New England quarterback Tom Brady should always be taken into huge consideration when deciding on an opponent facing the Patriots, but the New York Giants first Super Bowl meeting with them proved he can be stopped. He undisputedly has the quarterback advantage versus Houston’s Matt Schaub. Brady will face some hard challenges against J.J. Watt and the Texans defense, if Watt plays up to his full potential.

Houston Texans has a more complete team in defense and rushing. New England’s pass defense finished the season at number 29, just 3 positions from last place, and their running defense finished at 9. Their pass defense will struggle a bit against the Texans. They will also have problems stopping Arian Foster. Their run defense will be 50/50 in defending Foster.

If Houston wins this matchup, and the Broncos win, Texans will face their old divisional foe, Peyton Manning for the AFC title. If Houston can make it to the Super Bowl, or even the AFC title game, this will be one of the toughest playoff runs in NFL history for any team. It will be another Brady and Manning classic matchup if the Pats/Broncos make it to the conference championship game.

Tom Brady’s ability to move the ball and create unstoppable scoring drives will be the problem for Houston. The Texans do not have in Matt Schaub what it takes to keep up with a QB like Tom Brady. With that being said, Houston has more pressure to be on their “P’s and Q’s” so they are not in a tight situation trying to contain Tom Brady i.e. close game, fourth quarter comeback, or Patriots with last possession of ball in final minutes with a close score.

This will be a hard fought game. It will start out close, but New England will run away with it. The Patriots will pull through with the victory because of Tom Brady and coach, Bill Belichick. Follow @nategrayzone

@nategrazone picks: New England-32 Houston-17